Donald Trump is positioned for a sweeping primary win in his home state of New York according to a poll by Monmouth University in New Jersey. Trump has the support of an outright majority of likely voters, a margin that suggests he could win nearly every delegate awarded by the state.
Currently, 52% of likely Republican primary voters in New York support Trump compared to 25% who support John Kasich and 17% who will vote for Ted Cruz. Trump has more than half the vote in New York City and Long Island (58%) and Upstate New York (52%), and nearly half in Western New York (47%). Kasich does slightly better upstate (28%) and west (26%) than he does in NYC/LI (22%). Cruz does slightly better in the west (21%) than he does upstate (15%) and in NYC/LI (14%).
“If this result holds in every single congressional district, Trump will walk away with nearly all of New York State’s delegates,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. According to the poll, about one-third of the state’s likely Republican electorate will come from the 16 Congressional districts covering New York City and Long Island, but this region accounts for a majority of the state’s 95 delegates. Any candidate who wins an outright majority – i.e. 50% plus one – in any district wins all three delegates allocated to that district.
When New York Republicans were asked about some of Trump’s controversial statements – including punishing women who have abortions and placing nuclear weapons in Asia – most voters (57%) say these comments have no impact on how they will vote in the April 19 primary. However, 29% say these kinds of statements make them less likely to support Trump and just 7% say they are more likely to support Trump because of his comments. The Monmouth University Poll also found that most GOP voters (72%) say that they feel neither positive nor negative about the fact that Trump is a fellow New Yorker, while 14% say it makes them proud and 13% feel embarrassed by the association.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from April 3 to 5, 2016 with 302 New York voters likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary. This sample as a margin of error of +5.6 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.