Poll: Clinton Maintains Large Lead in NY

LOUDONVILLE, NY —  Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton now holds a 21-point lead over Republican Donald Trump, 51-30 percent, with eight percent for Gary Johnson and three percent for Jill Stein, according to a new Siena College poll of likely New York State registered voters. The results are down a little for Clinton from a 25-point, 50-25 percent lead last month

By more than three-to-one, likely New York voters both support a pathway for citizenship for those now here illegally and believe that climate change is a significant threat to our planet. By smaller margins, they want to keep and improve, rather than repeal and replace, Obamacare (by 18 points); consider themselves gun control supporters, rather than 2nd Amendment supporters (by 15 points); and, want the federal government to do more to stimulate the economy, rather than lessening its role (by nine points).  Senator Chuck Schumer has a commanding 46-point lead over Wendy Long, up from 39 points last month.

“Clinton holds her base better than Trump holds his. She leads with Democrats 75-10 percent, while Trump holds a 67-16 percent lead with Republicans. Independent voters are closely divided, with 39 percent supporting Clinton and 37 percent backing Trump,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Clinton leads by a whopping 52 points in New York City and six points upstate; they are virtually even in the downstate suburbs.

“The gender gap has narrowed and Clinton now leads by 22 points with women, down from 36 points last month, and 18 points with men, up from 10 points.  While the two run virtually even with white voters, Clinton has the support of 85 percent of black voters and 86 percent of Latinos,” Greenberg said.  “She leads by 26 points with voters under 35, and by 16 points with those 55 and older.  She leads by eight points with Catholics, 14 points with Jews and 21 points with Protestants.”

Clinton has a 52-46 percent favorability rating, virtually unchanged from 51-46 percent last month.  Trump’s negative 29-68 percent favorability rating is up from a negative 24-72 percent last month.  By a 58-39 percent margin (60-37 percent last month) voters say Clinton is not honest and trustworthy. By a larger 67-29 percent margin (69-28 percent last month) they say Trump is not honest and trustworthy. By 50-39 percent, voters say Clinton is more honest and trustworthy than Trump (down from 54-38 percent last month).

“Three-quarters of Democrats have a favorable view of Clinton. By a 23-point margin they think she is honest and nearly three-quarters say she’s more honest than Trump.  Nearly six in ten Republicans view Trump favorably. By a 14-point margin they think he is honest and more than three-quarters say he’s more honest than Clinton,” Greenberg said.  “Independent voters view both candidates unfavorably – Clinton by 13 points and Trump by 24 points.  They say they don’t trust either – Clinton by 51 points and Trump by 23 points – but by a narrow six-point margin, independents say Trump is more honest and trustworthy than Clinton.

“On several key national issues, likely voters in traditionally ‘blue’ New York identify far more with the positions taken by the Democratic nominee, rather than the Republican nominee,” Greenberg said.  “Voters overwhelmingly support giving undocumented immigrants a pathway to citizenship rather than deporting them, 76-20 percent, which includes a strong majority of Republicans.  And by a similar 76-21 percent margin, voters, also including a large majority of Republicans, say that climate change is a significant threat to the planet rather than not real nor based on science.

“Democrats overwhelmingly support keeping and improving Obamacare, while Republicans overwhelmingly want it repealed and replaced.  Independents are closely divided.  More than two-thirds of Democrats identify more as gun control supporters, while nearly two-thirds of Republicans identify more as 2nd Amendment supporters, and independents divide equally. Two-thirds of Democrats say the federal government should do more to stimulate the economy and two-thirds of Republicans and a majority of independents say the federal government should lessen its role and give businesses more freedom to operate,” Greenberg said.

This Siena College Poll was conducted September 11-15, 2016 by telephone calls conducted in English to 600 self-identified likely New York State voters.