LOUDONVILLE, NY — A poll from Siena College finds that President Joe Biden has a lead of 46-37% in New York state in a head-to-head matchup with Donald Trump for the Presidential election.
Biden has a 45-52% favorability rating, down from 50-45% in September, and a 46-51% job approval rating, slightly down from 47-48% last month. For 2024, Democrats say they want a different presidential nominee than Biden, 52-41%; in September, they wanted Biden as their nominee, 54-40%.
Biden leads former President Trump 46-37% in a head-to-head matchup, down from 52-31% last month. In a 4-way matchup, with independents Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Cornell West, Biden leads Trump 38-31%; Kennedy has 13% and West has 5%, according to a Siena College poll of registered New York State voters. This Poll was conducted October 15-19, 2023, among 1,225 NYS registered voters.
More than eight in ten voters continue to say that the recent influx of migrants to New York is a serious problem for the state, 57% very serious, up slightly from 54% in August. Nearly two-thirds, 64%, say New Yorkers have done enough for new migrants and must now work to slow the flow of migrants, compared to 29% who say the state should accept and work to assimilate them; it was 58-36% in August. And 58% agree with Mayor Eric Adams that the migrant issue ‘will destroy New York City.’
“Is New York still ‘true blue?’ True, 49% of voters are enrolled as Democrats and only 23% as Republicans. True, the last Republican presidential candidate to win here was Ronald Reagan in 1984. But also true is that just last year, a Republican came within seven points of being elected governor. And also true is that right now, Biden has his worst-ever New York favorability and job approval ratings,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “The good news for Biden is the election is more than a year away. The bad news is there’s more bad news.”
“While 70% of Democrats view Biden favorably, and 70% of Democrats approve of the job he’s doing, 52% of Democrats say they want a different presidential nominee in 2024,” Greenberg said. “And in the general, Biden only leads Trump 46-37%, a far cry from the 61-38% margin Biden won by in 2020. Biden’s lead slips to just seven points if RFK and West – who, combined, win the support of nearly one in five voters – are on the ballot.”
Majority of NYers Says Migrant Influx is Very Serious Problem & Majority Agree it ‘Will Destroy NYC’
“While other issues in Washington and abroad have largely driven the news cycle over the last few weeks, the influx of migrants to New York remains top of mind for voters, with 84% saying it’s a serious – 57% very serious – problem for the state,” Greenberg said. “Seldom do we see an issue where at least 79% of Democrats, Republicans, independents, men, women, upstaters, downstaters, Blacks, whites, Latinos, Catholics, Jews, and Protestants all agree – that the migrant influx is a serious problem.
“The strong majority of voters last month who said by 22 points that New Yorkers must work to slow the flow of migrants rather than accept and assimilate them, has grown to an overwhelming 35-point majority today,” Greenberg said. “That view is shared by 82% of Republicans, 68% of independents and 52% of Democrats, as well as two-thirds of downstaters and 59% of upstaters.
“While a plurality of New Yorkers do not approve of the job Adams is doing to address the influx of migrants, a 58-32% majority of New Yorkers – including a narrow plurality of Democrats – agree with Adams’ statement that ‘this issue will destroy New York City.’ A majority of white (60%), Black (57%) and Latino (51%) voters all agree,” Greenberg said.
“Voters disapprove of the job Governor Kathy Hochul is doing to address the migrant influx by 15 points, but they disapprove of the job Adams is doing on the migrant issue by 16 points and they disapprove of the Biden Administration on this issue by a whopping 35 points, including a slight plurality of Democrats,” Greenberg said.
59% of Voters Say Crime in New York State Has Gotten Worse Over Last Year
Only 9% of voters think the problem of crime in New York State has gotten better, while 28% say it’s stayed about the same, and a majority, 59%, say it has gotten worse. More than three-quarters of Republicans, nearly two-thirds of independent and a plurality of Democrats say it has gotten worse. In their communities, 10% say better, a plurality, 46%, say about the same and 42% say the crime problem has worsened over the last year.
“In May, 93% of voters said crime in the state was a serious problem – 59% very serious – and 65% said crime in their community was a serious problem, 26% very serious. Today, a strong majority of voters say the problem of crime in the state has only gotten worse over the last year, and more than four in ten say crime in their community has gotten worse over the last year,” Greenberg said.
Voters Support Military/Economic Aid for Ukraine; Bigger Majority Supports Aid for Israel
Voters support providing more military and economic aid to Ukraine 51-38%, and they support more aid to Israel 57-32%. When asked which view is closer to theirs, 50% said Israel must do everything it can to get back the hostages taken by Hamas but Israeli attacks in Gaza will largely hurt innocent Palestinian civilians more than anyone else, while 32% said that after the surprise attacks Hamas carried out on Israeli civilians, Israel must do everything it can in Gaza to make sure it never happens again, regardless of casualties.
“Democrats support more aid for Ukraine two-to-one, as do a plurality of independents, but a majority of Republicans oppose it,” Greenberg said. “Aid to Israel, however, is supported by 52% of independents, 57% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans. Jewish voters support aid to Ukraine 71-19% and aid to Israel 81-8%.
“Half of New Yorkers – including majorities of Democrats and independents – say they’re more concerned that Israeli attacks in Gaza will hurt innocent Palestinian civilians, while about one-third – including a plurality of Republicans and a majority of Jewish voters – say that Israel has to make sure it never happens again, regardless of casualties,” Greenberg said. “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a 27-32% favorability rating with New Yorkers. He’s viewed favorably by Republicans and unfavorably by Democrats and Jewish voters.”
Odds & Ends
- Hochul has a 40-44% favorability rating, down a little from 40-41% in September. Her job approval rating stands at 45-45%, down from 48-41% last month.
- Trump has a 36-59% favorability rating, up a little from 33-61% last month. He remains very popular with Republicans, who view him favorably, 70-24%, and want to see him be their party’s nominee for president next year, 61-32%, little changed from 63-32% in September.
- By a 49-37% margin, voters say they would vote for a Democrat, rather than a Republican, for their representative in Congress. Similarly, voters say they want Democrats to control the House after the 2024 election, 51-37%. In both cases, not surprisingly, Democrats overwhelmingly say Democrats, Republicans overwhelmingly say Republicans and independents are closely divided on both questions.
- Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has a 39-30% favorability rating, down from 41-27% in September. Voters remain divided on whether they would re-elect Gillibrand or would prefer ‘someone else,’ 39-38%, down a little, from 41-37% last month.
